Movies 1/31 - Final Dest 2, Biker Boyz, REcruit

[gkl895]

I am going to roll the dice again and take FInal Destination 2 -6M over The Recruit for +110 (Olympic). I am banking on a large teen turnout and hope Biker Boyz doesn't pull too many away. The Recruit's story line has been beaten to death and there isn't anyone or anything new about this movie to make people want to see it. Hell I fell asleep during the commercial for it.

I am tempted to take Biker Boyz +1.5M over The Recruit, but won't due to the smaller release and incredibly dumb name.

I noticed Daredevil is now up to -16M (-130) over SHanghai Knights. I orginally bet this at -12 (-115). When is a good time for a middle in movies?

Good luck to everyone.

Movie record: 1-0 (+1.8 units)

 

[Royler]

Mmm...a couple things you should know...

The first Final Destination flick only pulled in about 10 million its first weekend. Sequels rarely outperform the original. It's also an "R" movie, which, depending on theater policies, limits the number of punks who can actually get into the flick.

I'm really expecting Recruit and FD2 to be neck-and-neck this weekend, perhaps with around 10 mil each, which would put this bet off.

I'm still undecided about that DD prop. This movie could have a good run or crash spectacularly. Affleck looks like The Gimp from Pulp Fiction in that outfit. I don't know how seriously the general public is going to take him.

 

[gkl895]

Ouch! The 'R' rating was definitely an oversite on my part...I thought (assumed) it was PG-13. I saw that the first movie only did $10M, but it was also going up against Erin Brockovich and Julia Roberts is a box office vacuum. I'm hoping with less competition it will do better, esp since it is really the only new movie for teenage girls (which to me is the biggest draw on weekend movies).

I like the Daredevil vs SK bet. Daredevil is opening on Valentines Day along with the Jungle Book2. I'm thinking the Valentines dates will flock to this...the girls like AFleck and the guys don't mind a superbero. Shanghai Knights is opening with Mathew McConaughy's "How to Lose a Guy.." and LL Cool J's "Deliver US.."...star power that I think will be enough to water down SK's numbers.

 

[Royler]

These bets are myopic in the amount of information you have to absorb to make an intelligent wager.

I would expect FD2 to do about 11 million this weekend. Name recognition, and a decent date option for the 17-25 crowd. Don't think you can use Brockovich as an excuse for the first one...different audiences entirely.

I really prefer straight under/over wagers than comparative props. Still waiting for the WSEX numbers to open up.

 

[AC]

FYI--biker boyz is a very hip name to the teen crowd. it has no negative connotation to that audience. you may think it is stupid, but I don't think you are the tiger audience.

very interesting article about biker boyz in this morning LA Times. I think this one is going to surprise you guys. Its the only movie I'm going to see this weekend. the writer wrote LOVE AND BASKETBALL, which also surprised a lot of people when it came out. the writer's husband is the director.

also, there was a stomach turning article about KANGAROO JACK in yesterday's LA TIMES. JACK was never intended to be a family film and was originally supposed to be a mob comedy a la MIDNIGHT RUN. it tested badly (expect for the kangaroo, which people liked) and the test screenings coincided with the succesful release of SNOW DOGS. bruckheimer saw that that movie scored big because of talking dogs. he got the studio to pony up 10 million to creat a talking kangaroo dream sequence and for them to recut the picture to focus more on the kangaroo...they did so and the testing changed dramatically. now warners has a family pic on their hands and recuts several times to get a PG. however, people have been taking their kids to see the movie and are ticked because it is a little more graphic then they would like. this article is a great example of how marketing runs hollywood and how pictures get turned into hamburger routinely.

good luck.

AC

ps. Daredevil looks like a pos. it doesn't have the name recognition of spiderman or x-men..or hulk, which will be this summer's BIG movie, in my opinion. then again, I haven't read comic books in 20 years, so maybe it is a popular title. i think fading daredevil is a good policy.

 

[Royler]

AC,

As a professed comics fan, Daredevil had a LOT of potential.

Mistake #1 was putting Affleck in the movie.

Mistake #2 was putting Affleck in that God-awful costume, which even the director contends looks terrible if not lit properly. From the looks of things, the lighting guy was a narcoleptic.

Mistake #3 was casting Michael Clarke Duncan as the Kingpin. He was cast solely for his girth, and it's apparent in the trailers that he hams it up and can't pull off menacing very well at all.

I could go on...and I'll probably see this, but I honestly think it could've been the next Batman. (In terms of gross, not quality, as I felt the '89 Burton flick wasn't anything special.)

As for Biker Boyz...I've heard audiences giggle at that one, and the reviews thus far have not been favorable. But in terms of urban appeal, I was astounded when Empire opened up so strongly in so few theaters, and a decent opener for this one wouldn't shock me, either.

Tough calls all around.

 

[lakerfan]

Read both articles.

The Kangaroo Jack article was a classic. Seeing what this movie went through getting to screen was LOL funny. Reminded me a little of the books Art Linson has written about his experiences producing movies. Worth checking out if you have the time.

 

[lakerfan]

Royler-

I assume you have seen that WSEX has FD2 at 19M already up. And the money is coming in on the over.

 

[Royler]

I just caught it. Not sure why money is coming in on the over. Teen-oriented horror is not blockbuster business. Hell, even "The Ring," with all its pre-release buzz and PG-13 rating, only drummed up about 14 million its first weekend.

I've noticed that WSEX must have good contacts, since their lines usually wind up as the estimated gross for these flicks, and there's a very narrow margin of error. That means FD2 is headed for either 22 mil or 16-18 million. I'm still leaning towards the under. Let's see if the line moves enough to really make it worth my while.

My problem is, I rarely bet anything but enough to pay off credit cards.

So I'm very careful about where my cash goes, and very rarely do anything until the last minute.

 

[lakerfan]

Agree that WSEX lines are pretty sharp. But they have also have gotten good at moving lines based on early action and action they respect.

Obviously the money is now coming in on the Under, but they did open at 17M and then moved quickly to 19M and were still getting action on the over. I have been gone for the rest of the day, so I didn't see the line movement to get to 18M with the money on the under.

 

[AC]

i don't know if there is enough $$ in the marketplace to support 20 million this weekend...does anyone know what the historical take is for the coming weekend? it can't be more than 90. also, what is the all time highest grosser for jan -- probably in the low 20's i think. this is the wasteland period for releasing films.

good luck. should be interesting

AC

ps. the art linson books are the most accurate portrayal of what producing movies is like today. another great book about how the business works is Bernie Brillstein's book. it is dead on.

 

[lakerfan]

AC - Haven't read Bernie Brillstein. Just order his Where Did I Go Right? : You're No One In Hollywood Unless Someone Wants You Dead. Thank you for the recommendation.

AC, I agree that it seems unlikely that the market can support all these films doing their lines at WSEX. But if the urban audience shows up for Biker, the 25-50+ for Recruit, and 17-25 for FD2 it could happen. But unlikely. I doubt I will be playing into the lines this weekend as I am happy w/ my Recruit over Biker bets.

 

[Royler]

Lakerfan...nice call on your line. I believe it's now up to 3 1/2 mil. Looks like you were on to something.

FD2 line at WSEX is now favoring the UNDER 18 mil wager at -140. I wonder if these discussions move these lines against our favor.

I think I'm going to go another way this time...I don't expect FD2 to do gangbusters business, especially with an "R" rating, but this is why they call it gambling...

 

[raj]

Reading everything here, I am guessing best bet is: Recruit under 17.0 mil @WSEX +115

 

[AC]

lakerfan: tracking is supporting your recruit over bikerboyz bet. however, the tracking is showing 12 million for recruit and 16 million for FD2. biker boyz is at 7. tracking can be wrong, sometimes way off. usually its pretty good. also, just so you know the brillstein book is about agents and managers and how they work. it isn't really about making tv shows or films. unfortunately, agents and mgrs have a lot of power right now. and will until digital video movies, video game movies, and alternative distribution take off. which will happen eventually, but not in the next ten years.

AC

 

[lakerfan]

AC - No problem on the content of the book, I read all the time on almost any topic so I am sure I will get something out of it.

Access to tracking numbers is quite helpful, if you bet sides on them at close to even money I think you would do quite well. I occassionally get the numbers as well and on sharp lines like WSEX they can be a big help when betting Thursday and Friday.

I often prefer betting early as I usually get odds and I think I have a better feel for films before linemakers do (and they get their industry info), but late in the week you can hit them much harder with more confidence if you have tracking numbers and the lines are way off.

Drop me a email when you have the time:

lakerfan12345@hotmail.com

 

[SonofaGun]

lakerfan,
what are tracking numbers and where do you get them?

 

[lakerfan]

SOG - It is what studios own information shows their films are likely going to do based on a number of factors.

You can't really "get them", unless you have contacts in the studio or otherwise who provide them.

The numbers are usually reflected in the way the lines are being bet (which wasn't the case 6 months ago), and is also the reason why I wouldn't be suprised to see WSEX and OLY pull their O/U movie betting.

Six months ago it was more public betting so the bookmakers where making some cash, now it is a more informed public (which would still be ok), but it is also a lot of insiders or people with inside information betting.

With all that said I think movie betting has a future especially with bigger films like summer blockbusters which are tougher to predict (and will have more public money) as well as putting two movies against each other especially when the movies don't open on the same weekend.

I hope WSEX and OLY keeping putting up lines every weekend, just don't be surprised if they stop.

 

[SonofaGun]

thanks lakerfan. And how much do you see Biker Boyz making this weekend?

 

[lakerfan]

I would say 7-9M is most likely - 8M if you want just one number.

This has nothing to do with how the film will do, but on a side note it is getting horrible reviews. I won't be seeing it.